"Fratantoni said the economy will grow at a below-trend rate over the next year due to a softening global economy and uncertainties over the impacts of higher tariffs. The FOMC cut rates in September, and we expect additional cuts at the end of October and in December. While inflation is still above the Fed's target, the job market has weakened, and we expect that the FOMC will continue to focus more on its full employment goal, said Fratantoni."
"We expect that home sales will increase in 2026. The combination of lower mortgage rates and flat home prices has helped affordability conditions improve. While mortgage rates are not expected to decline further, housing supply has increased in recent months, which will ease home-price growth and provide more housing options for prospective buyers, Fratantoni added. The increase in inventories will put downward pressure on home prices across the country."
Total single-family mortgage originations are forecast to increase to $2.2 trillion in 2026 from $2.0 trillion in 2025. Purchase originations are projected to rise 7.7% to $1.46 trillion and refinance originations to rise 9.2% to $737 billion. By loan count, total originations are expected to increase 7.6% to 5.8 million loans in 2026. Economic growth is expected to be below trend amid a softening global economy and tariff uncertainties. The FOMC has cut rates and more cuts are anticipated, while the job market weakens and unemployment may rise to 4.7% by mid-2026. Improved affordability from lower rates and flat prices, along with rising housing supply and inventories, is expected to ease home-price growth and support higher home sales in 2026.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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