"The authors behind the report, Projections of Homeownership Rates and Household Growth by Tenure for 2025-2035, updated the research to reflect the possibility of relatively low population gains from international immigration over the next decade. The addendum comes as the immigrant population in the U.S. is decreasing. After peaking at 53.3 million in January, the immigrant population fell by 1.3 million by June, according to Pew Research data. Further deportations and restrictions on legal immigration have continued since, likely reducing the immigrant population further."
"The Harvard study examined how low immigration levels could impact homeownership rates and household growth, in comparison to a middle-series scenario. The middle-scenario projection assumes an annual net international immigration of approximately 870,000 between 2025 and 2035, reflecting the average historical immigration levels over the last three decades. In comparison, the low-immigration population assumes net immigration of 420,000, roughly half of the total."
A low-immigration scenario projects annual declines of 88,000–99,000 homeowning households and 74,000–86,000 renter households relative to a baseline with historical immigration. The middle-series projection assumes roughly 870,000 net international immigrants per year from 2025 to 2035, while the low-immigration scenario assumes about 420,000 per year. The foreign-born population peaked at 53.3 million in January and fell by 1.3 million by June; continued deportations and restrictions are likely to reduce the immigrant population further. Reduced net international immigration would lower total household growth and slow both owner-occupied and renter household formation over the coming decade.
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