"Jobs Friday came and went without much reaction in bond yields because the labor market isn't breaking, nor is it getting stronger. Mortgage rates dropped into the 5s for a short time on Friday as a result of Trump's earlier announcement directing the GSEs to buy $200 billion in mortgage backed securities. The 10-year yield didn't move much after the report."
"But the BLS report showed 50,000 jobs created in December, which means 2025 was the lowest job-growth year this century outside of a recession. In fact, if it wasn't for health care and social service labor, the year would have been negative. The unemployment rate did tick down in the report, but we have negative revisions of 76,000 jobs to the previous reports."
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 50,000 in December while the unemployment rate was 4.4 percent. Mortgage rates hovered near 6 percent as 10-year yields remained steady. A presidential directive for GSEs to buy $200 billion of mortgage‑backed securities briefly pushed mortgage rates into the 5s and aided mortgage spreads. Revisions subtracted 76,000 jobs from prior months. Employment increased in food services, drinking places, health care, and social assistance, while retail trade lost jobs. Residential construction employment has shifted from cycle highs to a clearer downward trend, an indicator that can precede recession. Homebuilder confidence showed a modest pickup.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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