The asteroid 2024 YR4's chances of impacting the Moon have significantly increased, now estimated at 3.8% by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Originally seen as a major threat to Earth, the chance of an Earth's impact was assessed to be very low. The asteroid, detected by an automated telescope on Christmas Day, has unusual thermal properties, likely due to its rapid spin and composition dominated by larger rocks rather than fine-grained sand. Further observations are needed to confirm these characteristics and better understand its risks.
Experts at NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated 2024 YR4's chance of impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032 from 1.7 as of late February to 3.8 percent.
We found that the thermal properties of 2024 YR4, in other words how quickly it heats up and cools down, and how hot it is at its current distance from the Sun, are not like what we see in larger asteroids.
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