"We have all these predictive models about what's going to happen in the future with Joshua trees, but this is showing us some real change just in the last 100 years," said Kelly Herbinson, executive director of conservation nonprofit Mojave Desert Land Trust, who was not involved in the study. "It's also helping us see this broader picture, which is that even though they may be flowering more often, these changes could undermine their survival in the long run."
"This is reinforcing the point that climate change impacts are already here," said author Jeremy Yoder, associate professor of biology at Cal State Northridge. The findings illustrate that the impacts of climate change are already affecting the reproductive cycles of plants such as Joshua trees, underscoring the importance of understanding these ecological trends as we confront a warming world.
Yoder spent days digging through the data trying to understand what was going on. He found that, counterintuitively, climate change is causing Joshua trees to flower more frequently, which might seem positive, yet it's linked to decreased survival rates for seedlings, thus raising concerns over the long-term viability of the species.
According to the study published in Ecology Letters, which utilized citizen science data to analyze climate change impacts over 120 years, it represents the first systematic look at what triggers the Joshua trees to flower frequently and their overall health across their habitat.
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