In the analysis of NFL team performance predictions, historical data shows that teams predicted to improve have succeeded over 81% of the time. The analysis also accurately identified declining teams with a success rate of approximately 79%. Notably, the Steelers maintained their 10-7 record despite predictions of decline, showcasing exceptions to trends based on improved play, players, and coaching. Teams like the Eagles benefitted from strategic coordinator upgrades, strong health, and favorable game outcomes, contributing to their successful season predictions based on previous performance.
Each year, I also break down the teams that are most likely to decline. This column has had a virtually identical success rate; after last year, it's 30 for 38.
The Steelers defied the odds again, maintaining their 10-7 record. They're responsible for two of those eight times in which a team didn't decline.
This column uses 2024 data and underlying metrics to estimate each team's true level of performance. Though every team makes offseason changes, history tells us the information from the previous season helps predict what will happen in the year to come.
The Eagles also made strong upgrades at coordinator, as Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore were excellent. Throw in some of the league's second-healthiest season by adjusted games lost, a 7-2 record in one-score games and the fifth-easiest schedule, and it was a special campaign.
Collection
[
|
...
]