The article discusses the pervasive influence of cognitive biases on human judgment, specifically spotlighting the newly identified likelihood neglect bias. This bias affects our ability to accurately assess situations, such as in the well-known Monty Hall problem. By examining this problem, the author illustrates how likelihood neglect bias can obscure the truth across various real-world scenarios, including medicine and law. Understanding and overcoming this bias enables individuals to better recognize valid evidence and make more accurate judgments, ultimately enhancing decision-making in critical areas of life.
...it’s well-documented that various biases can hinder us in our quest for truth. In a paper published last year in Judgment and Decision Making, I introduce a new cognitive bias: likelihood neglect bias.
Understanding this bias, and how to overcome it, can help us recognize good evidence and find the truth in numerous cases where others might not.
To show this, I’ll use a well-known brain-teaser which reveals this bias—the Monty Hall problem—and then I’ll apply the emerging ideas to show how we can find the truth in other realistic cases.
You'll want to apply these ideas to other cases which you might care about, such as correct diagnosis in medicine, assessing someone's feelings, or evaluating legal guilt.
Collection
[
|
...
]