One further complication is 'herding,' or the tendency for polls to produce very similar results to other polls, especially toward the end of a campaign. Methodologically inferior pollsters may skew their results to align with strong polling firms. Our analysis of Senate polls from 2006 to 2013 found that these weaker pollsters can improve their accuracy by roughly 2 points when influenced by more reliable polls in the field. This herding effect creates a misleading snapshot of race competitiveness as the election approaches.
Nate Silver's observations highlight a troubling consistency in recent polls showing the race narrowly fluctuating between Harris +1, a tie, and Trump +1. Such uniform results raise concerns that pollsters are engaging in herding, striving for conformity rather than accurate reflection of voter sentiments. With such tight margins just before an election, variations in polling results are expected, making the current trends appear suspiciously orchestrated among pollsters seeking to mitigate risks of being perceived as outliers.
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