Why We Act Against Our Values and How to Change

"Our mental system constantly generates expectations about what will happen next, including what we ourselves are likely to do, think, or feel. These expectations are often outside of awareness, but they quietly shape our behavior: We tend to act, think, and feel in ways that fit our expectations. As a result, the system becomes self-reinforcing: When our expectations are confirmed, they grow stronger, making the predicted behavior feel even more natural next time."

"Imagine someone who has tried to quit smoking several times. At some point, the person might feel stressed, which clashes with the system's expectation to feel well-with how "things should be." To restore balance, the system refers to its internal network of beliefs and might predict that reaching for a cigarette will help achieve this. If that is something the person has done many times before, the prediction feels coherent."

"We often know what might help us feel better. We tell ourselves to eat better, drink less, exercise more, be kinder to ourselves, or stop scrolling late at night. Yet, despite our best intentions, we frequently do the opposite. Why is it so hard to act on what we know to be useful? Predicting Ourselves A growing body of research suggests that behavior is not just a matter of willpower: It's the result of prediction."

Behavior and emotion emerge from the brain's predictive model rather than sheer willpower. The mind continuously generates expectations about upcoming events and about one’s own likely thoughts, feelings, and actions, often outside conscious awareness. Those expectations steer choices and feelings toward predicted outcomes, creating self-reinforcing loops that make habitual responses feel natural. Predictive coherence is favored; deviations introduce mental surprise that the system avoids, so familiar reactions recur even against valued goals like health. Changing habits requires altering the mind's self-predictions by cultivating new expectancies and using techniques that let new predictions stabilize into habitual, self-fulfilling patterns.

Read at Psychology Today