Prediction markets like Polymarket are revolutionizing how news is disseminated and valued, introducing a model that allows real-time probability assessments of events.
During the recent U.S. presidential election, prediction markets displayed a 60% chance of Trump winning, while traditional models showed only a 50% likelihood.
The emergence of legal prediction markets, such as Kalshi, raises questions about the future of news reporting, potentially providing real-time insights unavailable in traditional media.
The ability of prediction markets to surface real-time information is changing the dynamics of news consumption, as people with insights can share their knowledge for profit.
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