"But with billions of dollars spent, brands can't always pinpoint what's actually working. At a time when every dollar counts, CPGs are feeling intense pressure to prove performance. And while m arketers are drowning in attribution data from clicks to views, they are still left wondering which advertising generated real impact. More pointedly, the question is: Would that sale have happened anyway?"
"Incrementality-the ability to show which sales were directly caused by media-is now the new standard for accountability. It's about moving from "this person saw my ad and bought this product" to "this person bought the product because they saw my ad." Shawn McGahee, Sr. Director, Roundel Performance & Insights This shift is reshaping how brands plan, test and optimize retail media investments."
"Part of the hesitation may stem from outdated perceptions of what incrementality requires. With ew methodologies allowing more accurate incrementality measurement, these are three of the functionalities CPGs should prioritize: Synthetic control models: Use data modeling to create a statistical twin that predicts what would have happened without the ads, comparing the gap between this prediction and actual sales numbers. Platform-level Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs): Split audiences into test and control groups, then compare sales between those who saw the ad and those who didn't."
Retail media grew in importance in 2025, with 65% of respondents reporting an increased role. Billions are being spent, yet many brands cannot pinpoint which ads drive actual sales because standard attribution links exposures to purchases without proving causation. Incrementality measures whether a sale occurred because of media exposure rather than would have happened anyway, and has become the accountability standard. Only about half of brand and agency marketers use incrementality testing, leaving significant performance insights unused. Newer methodologies enable more accurate measurement; key priorities include synthetic control models and platform-level randomized controlled trials to plan, test and optimize investments.
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