Morgan Stanley's research indicates that a potential TikTok ban might lead to significant gains for U.S. companies like Meta, YouTube, Snap, and Pinterest, as users may pivot to these platforms for content.
Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak highlighted that if Meta captures just 10% of TikTok's U.S. user engagement, it could potentially add $0.30 to $0.60 to its 2026 EPS estimates.
Nowak also noted that YouTube stands to benefit, estimating that a 10% shift in TikTok viewing time could generate an additional $400-$750 million in advertising revenue for YouTube.
Smaller companies like Snap and Pinterest will also likely gain from a TikTok shutdown; for Snap, a 10% increase in time spent could improve advertising revenue by 7% to 15%.
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