If the Conservatives can hold their losses to below 500 council seats in the upcoming local elections, it will be viewed as a bearable setback. However, if other parties grab more than 500 Tory seats, panic within the governing party could ensue, potentially jeopardizing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's position.
Professor Travers noted that while the 500-seat benchmark may be arbitrary, it signifies the importance of intangible factors like momentum and mood in local elections, especially when close to a general election. The public sentiment remains anti-incumbent, setting the stage for potentially significant shifts.
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