Nottingham Forest's unexpected rise in the Premier League is facing challenges as injuries and stronger competition begin to impact their form. After initially performing exceptionally and even entering Champions League contention, a recent draw against Leicester City has highlighted their struggles. With only five points earned from their last six matches, they've dropped from third to seventh place. As opposing teams analyze and adapt to their playing style, Forest's early-season success appears at risk of fading due to prolonged struggles and the return of stronger opponents like Man City and Chelsea.
No one could really say it's surprising that the Tricky Trees have fallen off the pace that had them soaring in the Champions League places.
Rivals like Man City, Newcastle United, and Chelsea have started to hit some better form entering the final stretch, key Reds have picked up untimely injuries.
Despite the veneer of objectivity and scientific rigor, it would be simplistic to view Forest's slide... as a mere regression to the mean.
There are more substantive reasons why Forest might have been 'over-performing' its expected goals numbers earlier this season.
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