The crypto-based prediction market Polymarket forecast a 65% chance of Trump winning the election following Biden's withdrawal, showing just a 1% decrease from before Biden's exit. Similarly, PredictIt lowered Trump's odds from 64% to 60%.
Research indicates prediction markets like Polymarket can be superior forecasters of political outcomes, proven by their accuracy on policy questions. Polymarket notably priced in a 10% chance of Biden stepping down before his debate with Trump in June.
Vice President Kamala Harris' emergence as the Democratic nominee frontrunner led to significant prediction market shifts. Polymarket and PredictIt now forecast an 81% and 85% chance, respectively, of her official appointment. The 2024 Democratic national convention in Chicago will reveal the party's presidential candidate.
#prediction-markets #political-forecasting #polymarket #kamala-harris #democratic-national-convention
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