"A Trump win was pretty well priced in with Biden being the candidate. Once I had convinced myself it was going to be [candidate] Kamala, then I thought that I was basically buying the no's at the highest price that they would be for Trump."
"It's important to note that Polymarket, which officially bans U.S. residents from using the platform, began the election with a significant premium for Trump, and it's tempting to dismiss its accuracy because of the embargo on Americans - the actual voters - as market participants."
"For now, Harris seems to have the lead in the race. RealClearPolling gives her a 1.4-percentage-point lead over Trump, while Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin model gives Harris a 2.5-percentage-point advantage."
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