The Census Bureau's latest report revealed a month-to-month increase in housing starts but a decline in building permits, reflecting a unique trend in the housing market as both metrics remain similar to early COVID-19 recession levels. Surprisingly, employment in residential construction has not decreased, despite typical signals of recession being indicated by falling permits and housing starts. New home sales have stabilized after a steep decline in 2022, highlighting the complexities within this current housing cycle and its implications for the broader economic landscape.
The recent construction report indicates month-to-month growth in housing starts yet a decline in housing permits, suggesting a complex and unique housing cycle.
Despite stagnant housing permits, employment for residential construction workers remains steady, contradicting typical recession signals seen in previous cycles.
New home sales peaked in October 2020 but experienced a significant decline by mid-2022, only to rebound as mortgage rates fell in late 2022.
This housing cycle appears unique compared to past decades, emphasizing the importance to the overall economic cycle as it unfolds.
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