According to Bank of America, the American alcohol industry faces significant headwinds that could lead to a prolonged decline in consumption. Analysts predict a 1% decrease in per capita alcohol consumption in 2025, marking a four-year downward trend. Factors contributing to this shift include the rising awareness of health impacts, particularly among younger generations. Data shows a decline in binge drinking among 21-34-year-olds, alongside a growing belief that moderation is unhealthy. This suggests critical changes in drinking habits that could reshape the industry landscape.
We are assuming per capita consumption reverts to historical levels. There is, however, risk that per capita consumption continues to recede.
65% of 18- to 34 year-olds said they believed drinking in moderation was bad for health last year. That's more than double the share of 18- to 34-year-olds who believed drinking in moderation was bad for health eight years ago.
90% of young Americans believe the best health advice for the average drinker would be to reduce alcohol consumption or stop drinking altogether.
Younger people appear to be turning away from alcohol, suggesting a critical shift in consumption patterns that could impact the industry for years.
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