The problem for Sunak about this particular theory is that the read-across from local elections to a general election is quite hard to do.
Many polling experts are sceptical of the usefulness of extrapolating a potential national result from local elections.
The places that vote one year are politically different from those that vote in another set of local elections.
All the evidence suggests that people vote differently at local elections than they do in national polls, and are more likely to back smaller parties or independents.
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