""Some, including many fuel-importing countries, lean towards renewables and efficiency as solutions. Others focus more on ensuring ample supplies of traditional fuels," it states. Big changes are "reshaping the energy landscape" in the U.S., notably huge policy shifts under the GOP. IEA sees U.S. oil output rising slowly to 2035 under existing policies, and continued gas production increases, though coal output keeps falling. It models a global "current policies scenario" (CPS) for the first time since 2019."
"There are lots of eyes on this one. Trump administration officials and some analysts say what had been the most cautious model - the "stated policies scenario" (STEPS) - was unrealistic about the movement away from fossil fuels. This year's STEPS run, by the way, no longer sees gas demand growth ending this decade, contra last year's. Instead, it projects a plateau in the mid-late 2030s, then gentle decline to 2050."
Momentum behind national and international efforts to reduce emissions has weakened while climate risks continue to rise. Energy security and affordability concerns have moved higher on national priority lists, producing mixed impacts for low‑carbon sources: many fuel‑importing countries favor renewables and efficiency, while others prioritize ample supplies of traditional fuels. U.S. policy shifts under the GOP are reshaping the domestic energy landscape. Under existing policies, U.S. oil output is projected to rise slowly to 2035, gas production to increase, and coal output to fall. The IEA models a current policies scenario showing long‑term oil and gas demand growth, with coal declining this decade. Electricity demand grows far faster than total energy use.
Read at Axios
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