"Adobe's analysis, based on over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites and 100 million SKUs across 18 categories, suggests that this year's season will be shaped by the dominance of mobile shopping, flexible payment options and the growing influence of generative AI and social platforms on consumer behavior. Cyber Week to drive nearly a fifth of spend: Adobe expects 10 separate days where online spending will top $5 billion."
"Cyber Week-the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday-will account for $43.7 billion, or 17.2% of the season's total, up 6.3% YoY. Cyber Monday remains the single biggest day at $14.2 billion (+6.3% YoY). Black Friday is forecast to grow faster, up 8.3% YoY to $11.7 billion. Thanksgiving Day spending will hit $6.4 billion (+4.9% YoY)."
"For the first time, mobile devices will drive the majority of online holiday spend, capturing 56.1% ($142.7 billion). That's up 8.5% YoY and a dramatic shift from 2020, when mobile accounted for just 40% of holiday ecommerce. Buy Now, Pay Later expands share: Consumers continue to embrace Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) for budget flexibility. Adobe projects BNPL purchases to reach $20.2 billion this season (+11% YoY), including more than $1 billion on Cyber Monday alone."
U.S. online holiday spending is projected at a record $253.4 billion for Nov. 1–Dec. 31, 2025, a 5.3% year-over-year increase. The forecast draws on over 1 trillion retail-site visits and 100 million SKUs across 18 categories, with mobile now capturing 56.1% of spend ($142.7 billion). Cyber Week is expected to generate $43.7 billion, with Cyber Monday, Black Friday and Thanksgiving showing notable growth. BNPL purchases are projected at $20.2 billion, with nearly 80% of BNPL transactions on mobile. Aggressive discounting is driving a trade-up effect into premium sporting goods, electronics and appliances. Generative AI and social platforms are influencing consumer behavior.
Read at MarTech
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