"It's taken over 20 years for e-commerce to get to 16% of global retail sales. If we draw a parallel, agentic commerce will be much faster. I predict we'll get to 10% in three to five years. The mass consumer adoption of AI technologies, whether that's OpenAI's ChatGPT with 800 million weekly active users or Google AI with 1.5 billion monthly active users, means there's a huge, scaled audience already for agentic commerce."
"Brands are recognising that these are new interfaces within which consumers who are researching for goods and services might eventually want to fulfil the whole, end-to-end buying journey. As with the beginning of e-commerce, AI represents a new distribution channel for businesses to get their heads around, but it's easier because the audience is already built, there are already five and a half billion people online, and the guardrails of commerce."
Agentic commerce is expected to reach 10% of retail within three to five years due to faster adoption than e-commerce. Mass consumer use of AI platforms already provides a large built-in audience for agentic commerce. Brands recognize AI as a new interface and potential end-to-end buying channel. AI lowers distribution barriers because billions are already online and commercial guardrails exist. LLM-driven markets tend toward winner-takes-most dynamics, so early presence matters to secure answer-provider positions. Businesses are exploring AI both for positioning and for medium-term revenue opportunities. The key decision is whether agentic commerce becomes a mass market or remains niche.
Read at Fortune
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