Humans are uniquely able to envision the future, yet we often misjudge it. Predictions about careers, relationships, and global events are frequently inaccurate due to innumerable unforeseen variables.
Philip Tetlock’s research concluded that average experts were no more accurate than a dart-throwing chimpanzee when forecasting political and economic issues, illustrating our limited predictive abilities.
Historical events like the Treaty of Versailles exemplify how triumphs can blind us to future repercussions, similar to how Obama’s win unknowingly facilitated Trump’s rise to power.
In times of anxiety, we may convince ourselves that the future is predictable, despite evidence that our foresight is often clouded by current events.
Collection
[
|
...
]