"Released today by the policy-neutral nonprofit Climate Central, the analysis found that the number of days topping the heat-stress threshold increased across all 25 coffee-producing countries studied, representing 97% of global coffee production. Using temperature observations from 2021 through 2025, the analysis focused on days when maximum temperatures exceeded 30°C (86°F), a threshold the group described as "extremely harmful" for arabica plants and suboptimal for robusta. Heat stress at those levels can reduce yields, affect bean quality and increase vulnerability to pests and disease."
"Among the top five coffee-producing countries - Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia - Climate Central calculated an average of 57 additional days per year above the 30°C threshold that would not have occurred without climate change. Together, those five origins supply roughly three-quarters of the world's coffee. Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, saw an average of about 70 additional coffee-harming hot days per year due to climate change, including about 67 days per year in Minas Gerais, according to the analysis."
Observed temperatures from 2021–2025 show increased frequency of days exceeding 30°C across the world's major coffee-producing regions, covering 25 countries and 97% of global production. Days above 30°C are extremely harmful to arabica and suboptimal for robusta, causing yield declines, lower bean quality, and greater pest and disease vulnerability. The five largest origins—Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—average 57 additional such days annually, with Brazil near 70 and Indonesia about 73. Across all 25 countries the mean increase is about 47 added coffee-harming days per year, with El Salvador, Nicaragua and Thailand showing the largest rises. Observed temperatures were compared to counterfactuals estimating a no-carbon-emissions world using ERA5 reanalysis and the Climate Shift Index.
Read at Daily Coffee News by Roast Magazine
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