Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm cautions against investors prematurely forecasting a U.S. recession, attributing it to the 'Sahm rule'.
Sahm indicates that while the risk of recession has increased with softening labor demand, it's due to an overheated economy and the Great Resignation, not broad weakening.
Even with the Sahm rule close to triggering a recession signal, Sahm argues extenuating circumstances like immigration may artificially inflate unemployment rates, distorting conclusions.
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