The Stock Market Just Had One of Its Strongest 8-Week Runs Ever. History Says It May Not Be Done Yet

Inflation rose, consumer confidence fell to record lows, and Treasury yields climbed as investors questioned whether the Federal Reserve would cut rates in 2026. The S&P 500 declined 7% year to date by March 30, marking one of the weakest starts in decades. Over the next eight weeks, the index surged 17%, erasing the earlier decline and bringing the year-to-date gain to about 10%, even with a holiday-shortened trading week. The rally broadened beyond mega-cap technology, with industrials, financials, and small-cap stocks joining as recession fears faded. Historical patterns from prior strong eight-week rallies suggest such bursts often occur in the middle of bull markets rather than at their end, though past performance cannot guarantee future results.

"Inflation readings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics moved higher, consumer confidence sank to record lows, and Treasury yields climbed as investors questioned whether the Federal Reserve would cut rates at all this year. By March 30, the S&P 500 had fallen 7% year to date - one of the weakest starts to a calendar year in decades."

"In just eight weeks, the benchmark index surged 17%, erasing the entire decline and pushing the market to a 10% gain for the year. That is more than double the S&P 500's average gain of roughly 4.5% by this point in a typical year. And despite the holiday-shortened trading week, stocks are still pushing higher."

"The rally has been broad enough to surprise even seasoned investors. Mega-cap technology stocks continued leading higher, but industrials, financials, and small-cap names joined the advance as recession fears faded. According to data shared by Creative Planning's Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 just recorded one of its strongest rolling eight-week rallies in history."

"Surprisingly, the historical data suggests these powerful bursts higher do not usually mark the end of a bull market . They often mark the middle. That is the kind of data that can make investors rethink the instinct to "wait for a pullback." Granted, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Markets do not move on autopilot."

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