"If you look at the mortgage forecasts, it depends on which one you choose, but they're up anywhere from 8% to 25% based on the Fannie Mae and MBA numbers, Brown said during a webinar with Fitch Ratings. That would be very good for this industry. Brown said 2025 ultimately resembled 2024, although conditions improved in the latter half of the year as inventory increased and mortgage rates eased, but not as much as some of us would like."
"In 2024, mortgage rates averaged around 7%, and when we look at 2025, they were about 6.15%, Brown said. A 25- and 50-basis-point change makes a big difference in terms of affordability to the average consumer, if you're in the buying process and it also makes a big deal in terms of whether you're eligible for a rate-and-term refinance. Mortgage cycles do not shift overnight, Brown added, but incremental changes matter."
Mortgage forecasts for 2026 range from about 8% to 25% based on Fannie Mae and MBA projections. Mortgage rates averaged around 7% in 2024 and roughly 6.15% in 2025, with potential to dip into the 5% range by late 2026. Small changes of 25 to 50 basis points materially affect affordability and refinance eligibility, and mortgage cycles shift incrementally. Inventory increased and rates eased in late 2025. The company completed acquisitions of Redfin and Mr. Cooper in 2025, gained Redfin’s large audience, and is building an all‑weather business focused on servicing cash flows, recapture opportunities, scale and liquidity.
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