The Federal Reserve is the center of attention this week at the symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Market movements show a slight decrease in major indexes as investors anticipate a possible rate cut of 0.25% next month. Nearly 85% probability is assigned to this cut amid concerns over the U.S. consumer's strength. Earnings reports from major retailers such as Home Depot, Lowe's, Target, and Walmart are also highly anticipated, with analysts suggesting Target may outperform expectations, potentially leading to a market relief rally.
Markets are down slightly, taking a breather from a winning streak on hopes for a rate cut in September. The Nasdaq is down about 45 points.
Ahead of Powell's speech - likely to be his last as Fed chair - markets are placing the probability the Fed will cut rates by at least 0.25% next month at around 85%.
Analysts at Evercore ISI just added Target to its tactical outperform list, noting that Target earnings could be better than expected.
A relief rally could result, especially if trends into 2H show any BTS (back to school) improvement, with potential mgmt change and stimulus proving hope into 2026.
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