In the year to March, annual inflation as measured by the consumer prices index stood at 3.2%. The figure for April will be a lot lower and if Hunt gets lucky it might even fall as low as the government's 2% target.
Domestic energy bills rose in April 2023 but have fallen by 12% this year for most households. The energy price cap was set at 1,690 last month compared with 2,500 a year earlier.
Base effects in other words, what happened a year ago coupled with cheaper heating and lighting this year means it is inevitable the inflation rate will tumble.
The Bank of England expects less favorable base effects later this year to push the annual inflation rate back up to about to 2.5% in the second half of 2024 the period when the prime minister seems likely to call a general election.
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