"Leaders are praised for "seeing around corners" and told to "skate to where the puck is going." But what if you can't even see your own feet, let alone a puck or a distant corner? Today's volatility and uncertainty obscure any clear path to the future, and the forecast isn't improving any time soon. In a recent World Economic Forum survey, 52% of experts expect an unsettled two-year horizon, 31% anticipate turbulence, and 5% foresee storms."
"Leadership has long meant setting a compelling destination, planning the route, and mobilizing people to move. The classic tool kit-forecast, plan, execute-assumes a knowable future. With today's complexity, forecasts are guesses and plans expire fast. Leaders who aren't shifting away from a predict-plan-act approach will see their impact erode-and their well-being with it. The reason sits in the brain. When complexity is high, trying to predict accurately and act decisively strains a leader's cognitive load-the mental effort required to process information and choose."
"It's the difference between running on a clear, lit path and running on dark ice with crosswinds: far more effort, far less progress. Add time pressure and constant digital distractions, and cognitive load spikes further. When cognitive load stays high, brain fog sets in, decision speed drops, details slip, and big-picture comprehension narrows. In short, you're not the leader you intend to be. It's time to work differently."
Volatility and uncertainty obscure clear paths to the future, with experts predicting an unsettled to turbulent two-year horizon. Forecasts and plans become unreliable as complexity increases, undermining the traditional forecast-plan-execute leadership model. High complexity and time pressure elevate leaders' cognitive load, making accurate prediction and decisive action mentally costly. Sustained cognitive load causes brain fog, slower decisions, missed details, and narrowed big-picture comprehension, reducing leadership effectiveness and wellbeing. Leaders must adopt different approaches that lower cognitive load and cultivate awareness to make faster, clearer decisions and act effectively in uncertain environments.
Read at Fast Company
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