How Can Google Stock Fall?

"Alphabet (GOOGL) has experienced setbacks in the past. Its stock dropped by over 30% within less than two months in 2022, resulting in billions in lost market value and eliminating significant gains in a single correction. If past events provide any insight, GOOGL stock is not shielded from abrupt, sharp declines. As an aside, check out Can Nvidia Stock Jump To $250?"

"Risk 1: Forced Divestiture of Core Ad Tech Stack Details: Forced sale of key ad units at discounted value and severe multiple contraction resulting from ongoing regulatory overhang. Segment Affected: Google Services (Ad Network) Potential Timeline: Remedy Decision H1 2026 Evidence: Federal judge ruled Google operates an illegal ad tech monopoly (April 2025); DOJ is actively seeking remedies, including mandatory ad data sharing with rivals (June 2025)."

"Risk 2: AI-Driven Search Market Share Collapse Details: A decline in high-margin ad click-through rates (CTRs). Top-result CTRs have been observed to drop when an AI Overview is present. Segment Affected: Google Search Potential Timeline: Next 2-3 Quarters Evidence: Google's U.S. search market share is projected to drop below 85% in 2026 (down from 87.4% in 2024). Current data shows traditional search volume is under pressure as Gartner predicts a 25% drop in traditional volume by year-end 2026."

Alphabet previously suffered a greater-than-30% stock drop in under two months in 2022, demonstrating vulnerability to sudden market corrections. Three principal risks threaten future performance: a forced divestiture of core ad tech could produce discounted sales and multiple contraction with a possible remedy decision in H1 2026. AI-driven search changes may lower high-margin ad click-through rates and reduce market share over the next few quarters. Massive AI infrastructure spending could weaken free cash flow conversion and margins, risking a valuation de-rating if capital expenditures outpace near-term revenue returns.

Read at Forbes