"Since the summer, job openings have risen by only a few hundred thousand and remain far below the highs seen in the frenzy of the pandemic. Layoffs upticked slightly, while quit rates fell, a sign that workers are increasingly hesitant to leave their current positions. Hiring, meanwhile, has held at 3.2%, a level consistent with employers who are not actively slashing staff but are no longer expanding their workforces either: a "low hire, low fire" market."
"For Zandi, the pattern is not random. He sees it as the continuation of a break that appeared earlier in the year, when the administration escalated reciprocal tariffs. If the cooling in the official data looks slow, the private indicators tell a sharper story. ADP's November report found that private employers cut 32,000 jobs, the steepest decline in more than two years. Nearly all of those losses came from small businesses, which eliminated 120,000 positions. Larger employers moved in the opposite direction and kept hiring."
The labor market lacks a financial buffer and many Americans already live on the financial edge, increasing recession risk if households pull back. Hiring has stalled, unemployment is rising — especially among vulnerable workers — and layoff announcements are increasing. Official JOLTS data show job openings rising only modestly since summer and remaining far below pandemic highs. Layoffs ticked up, quit rates fell, and hiring held at 3.2%, signaling a "low hire, low fire" market. Private data show sharper weakness: ADP reported a 32,000 private-sector job decline driven largely by small-business losses. The pattern coincided with reciprocal tariff escalation earlier in the year, and small firms often lack the financial cushions of larger employers.
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