"The CME Fedwatch Tool shows a 99% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep its target rate at 350 to 375 basis points when it meets this week on April 29."
"Polymarkets June FOMC market tells a similar story. Traders there assign a 93% probability to no change in rates at the June 16 to 17 meeting."
"The probability of a rate cut sits at zero. That consensus has held firm for at least a week."
"The July outlook on Polymarket reflects a bit more uncertainty, though the dominant view remains unchanged."
Prediction markets and CME futures traders indicate a strong consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 350 to 375 basis points during the upcoming FOMC meeting on April 29. The likelihood of a rate hike has decreased significantly from 6.2% a month ago to just 1%. Additionally, traders on Polymarket and Kalshi show limited expectations for rate cuts this year, with a 93% probability of no change in June and 85% in July.
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