The Bank of America economics team reassured clients that despite a predicted 'bumpier landing' for the economy, evidence for an outright recession remains scant.
The Sahm rule, which highlighted potential recession signals, has been triggered by rising unemployment, yet both BoA and Claudia Sahm express a lack of immediate recession concerns.
Bhave's team emphasized that recent data show some improvement in labor market conditions, arguing that the broader macro data flow does not indicate a recession at this time.
The recent unemployment rate drop to 4.2% and the fall in initial jobless claims have led BoA's economists to conclude that panic over a recession may be premature.
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