Bill Ackman's Microsoft Buy Just Told Everyone The Real Story on Nvidia's Geopolitical Risk

"NVIDIA's Q1 FY2027 guidance of roughly $78 billion in revenue explicitly excludes any Data Center compute revenue from China. When management itself zeroes out a major geography in forward guidance, that is the company telling you the regulatory picture is too murky to model. Add an $8 billion H20 revenue hit in Q2, a $4.5 billion charge before it, and the bulk of Blackwell production still tied to TSMC in Taiwan, and you have a stock trading at a 46x trailing P/E with the most concentrated geopolitical risk in mega-cap tech."

"Jensen Huang is calling this an "AI industrial revolution" and saying "Blackwell sales are off the charts." That is peak-cycle language, and seasoned investors have seen this movie before. The numbers behind the narrative are spectacular: $68.13 billion in Q4 revenue, Data Center growth of 75% year over year, and a 75.2% non-GAAP gross margin that any company on earth would envy."

"Why Ackman Is Building a Microsoft Position Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has reportedly been building a position in Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT), and the setup looks more durable for long-duration investors: more durable, less reliant on a single foundry an ocean away, and trading at a forward P/E of 21 after a 11.26% drawdown year to date."

NVIDIA has delivered strong recent results, including $68.13 billion in Q4 revenue, 75% year-over-year Data Center growth, and a 75.2% non-GAAP gross margin. Forward guidance for Q1 FY2027 excludes Data Center compute revenue from China, signaling uncertainty from regulation. Additional revenue impacts include an $8 billion H20 hit in Q2 and a $4.5 billion charge before it. Blackwell production remains tied to TSMC in Taiwan, leaving the stock exposed to geopolitical and export-control risk. NVIDIA trades at about 46x trailing P/E. Microsoft is presented as a more durable alternative for long-duration investors, with a forward P/E of 21 after an 11.26% drawdown year to date, supported by a contracted backlog and less reliance on a single foundry.

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