"Unemployment is (still) low. The unemployment rate has been below 4.5% for 47 consecutive months, nearly four years. That has only happened in one previous era, in data that goes back to 1948 - the four-year periods ending in 1969 and 1970. The boom times of the late 1980s, the 1990s, and late 2010s never matched this duration of low joblessness."
"The intrigue: When the labor market began to slow from its 2022-era high boil, recession predictions were everywhere. As the unemployment rate started to rise from its modern low of 3.4% in April 2023, economists wrung their hands over an observation: There are few precedents for the unemployment rate rising significantly, absent a recession, then leveling off. But that's what happened. And while worrying signs abound, it still amounts to four years of basically sound conditions."
"Artificial intelligence is starting to pay off. America is spending more on AI than any other nation, betting on technology that could have transformative effects for the economy and worker productivity. Even in a nation as politically fractured as ours, there is bipartisan agreement that the U.S. has much to gain from being the world's leader in this technology. Between the lines: There's early research that AI is already causing a productivity surge in key fields, including scientific and medical research."
Unemployment has stayed under 4.5% for 47 straight months, a span only matched by the four-year periods ending in 1969 and 1970. The labor market cooled from its 2022 peak and the unemployment rate rose from a modern low of 3.4% in April 2023, but the increase leveled off without a recession, leaving broadly sound conditions. The United States is investing heavily in artificial intelligence, with bipartisan support for leadership and early evidence that AI is boosting productivity in scientific and medical research. AI raises fears about job loss but also promises reduced routine work, higher wages, and new opportunities.
Read at Axios
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