Outperforming ENS marks something of an inflection point in the advance of AI for weather prediction. At least in the short term, these models are going to accompany and be alongside existing, traditional approaches.
GenCast creates an ensemble of 50+ different predictions, each showing a possible future scenario. This data helps authorities prepare for extreme weather events like hurricanes or wind farm operators better predict power output days in advance.
GenCast is taking things up a notch. The system can spit out predictions in far less time: 8 minutes, compared to hours for traditional models.
GenCast is a diffusion machine learning model, uniquely adapted for weather prediction, trained on four decades of data from ECMWF, the agency behind ENS.
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