#storm-track-uncertainty

#storm-track-uncertainty

The mudslide in Petropolis in February 2022 killed 233 people, and displaced many more. Over the past decade, climate-related disasters have displaced 250 million people globally, equivalent to 70,000 people forced from their homes every day.

"This is going to help fill that gap in minutes to hours lead time that's vital to know where the heaviest rain is going to hit," Ralph said. "And when and what communities are going to be affected so people in the preparedness community and water resource management community can take action to help protect people's lives and property."

When scientists applied a new model of human survivability that takes into account the body's ability to function and stay cool depending on age, they found all six events had seen non-survivable periods for older people who could not find shade.

Successive punches of snow, wind and severe weather are "going to impact the eastern half of the United States," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tyler Roys said in an interview. Beyond the threat to lives and property, "whether it's wind gusts from a squall line, blizzard or snow, or just wind because of the storm, you're looking at several major airports being impacted."

While humans have assembled a lot of weather data, flash floods are too short-lived and localized to be measured comprehensively, the way the temperature or even river flows are monitored over time. That data gap means that deep learning models, which are increasingly capable of forecasting the weather, aren't able to predict flash floods.

When I spoke with emergency management officials last year, they all mentioned the same frustrating scenario. People ignore storm warnings until the precipitation starts falling, then suddenly everyone rushes out at once. The roads become congested with anxious drivers, accidents spike, and stores run out of essentials just when people need them most. But here's what really gets meteorologists worked up about this pattern. Modern weather forecasting has become incredibly accurate, especially for major winter storms.

"So whenever people think about hot weather, they always talk about the temperature," he says. "There's two issues with that. First of all, most people don't realise that the temperature is measured in the shade. So if you're in direct solar radiation, the amount of heat stress you're exposed to is much greater as it will stress your body out a lot more."

I do understand that you're going to get some rain in winter, but it has definitely got worse. Even if you do manage to work for a day, it's punctuated by periods of an hour and a half of rain where you're sitting in your truck doing nothing. Before, I used to think, a day off, that's great. But now you think, oh, jeez, not another day off!

"These improvements empower communities to prepare earlier and more effectively for dangerous hazards from tropical storms and hurricanes," said Michael Brennan, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center.

A deep area of low pressure to the south-east of New Zealand's North Island swept into the region on Sunday, bringing heavy rain, gale-force winds and dangerous coastal swells that lashed exposed shorelines. The storm triggered power outages, forced evacuations and damaged infrastructure, with further impacts likely on Monday as the system lingers for a time, before tracking southwards later.

In November 2025, a massive storm rolled across the lower Mekong River delta, dumping multiple inches of rain onto the wide, flat river plain that covers much of Cambodia. The river rose and rose. The force of the water churned up mud from the river bottom. The muddy water flowed downstream and rushed into the many farming and fishing towns that line the Mekong's banks.

Intensely cold air is scouring the central and eastern U.S. again and will send temperatures plummeting all the way to the tip of Florida. Along with this new Arctic incursion, a major bomb cyclone storm is strengthening off the coast of the Carolinas, potentially bringing rare blizzard conditions to the region. Some areas haven't seen this amount of accumulating snow in over 30 years, wrote the National Weather Service's office in Wilmington, N.C., on Facebook.

LIVE RADAR: Track storms as they move through the Bay Area with Live Doppler 7 Take a look at the chart above -- we will give each storm a number with 1 being the lightest type of storm and 5 being the most severe. This way you'll know what to expect. Number 1 means a light storm with 1/2 an inch of rain or less and likely lasting a few hours or less. Number 2 is a moderate storm with 1/2 an inch to one inch of rain forecast and could include scattered power outages.

In the Rockies and Southwest, several states are projected to see over a foot of accumulation through Friday. Eastern California is expected to be the hardest hit, with the Sierra Nevada Mountains set to receive more than five feet of snow. Parts of Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah are predicted to see over ten inches, but totals could reach two to three feet at higher elevations throughout those states.

Warwick, N., Griffiths, P., Keeble, J., Archibald, A., & Pyle, J. Atmospheric implications of increased Hydrogen use. GOV.UK https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/atmospheric-implications-of-increased-hydrogen-use (2022).