#snow-accumulation-predictions

#snow-accumulation-predictions

The storm will begin warm and wind-affected on Friday, with snow levels starting around 7,000 to 8,000 feet, leading to wet conditions at lower elevations initially.

When I spoke with emergency management officials last year, they all mentioned the same frustrating scenario. People ignore storm warnings until the precipitation starts falling, then suddenly everyone rushes out at once. The roads become congested with anxious drivers, accidents spike, and stores run out of essentials just when people need them most. But here's what really gets meteorologists worked up about this pattern. Modern weather forecasting has become incredibly accurate, especially for major winter storms.

"Don't entirely trust any of these slopes until temperatures dramatically cool down. Each day, the sun climbs higher in the sky, and the oppressive heatwave sends meltwater deeper into colder snowpacks."

The first wave is underway Friday and stays most productive through Saturday for the Alberta Rockies, with guidance tightly clustered on onset timing but looser on how far west the better snowfall bands reach.

If you are reading this on the East Coast, congratulations on the warmer weather you're finally getting this week. It was cold and snowy for a while there. Here in the West, we wish we'd been in your shoes. Spare a thought for the tens of millions of us who live on the other side of the continent, where a catastrophe is unfolding.

To get back to average snowpack, we essentially need to have the most snow that we've ever had for the last 30 years between now and mid-April. It would be extremely difficult for Colorado to get back to a normal/average snowpack. As an example, when looking at the Independence Pass SNOTEL site in central Colorado outside of Aspen, we typically have 13 inches of snow-water-equivalent at the end of February. This year, we only have 6.7 inches of SWE.

From late Saturday night through Sunday, guidance is converging on timing and warmer snow levels but diverging on intensity and ridge-top wind magnitude, with the most consistent signal for light snowfall in the northern and central ranges and limited coverage farther south. Most mountains should stay in the low single digits for accumulation during this first push, with favored terrain near the Continental Divide able to approach around 4 inches by Sunday evening.

The midweek stretch looks like the most reliable window for fresh turns, with the steadiest snow lining up Wednesday night into Thursday and lighter add-ons into Friday. Snow levels run a little high early, then step down late week, so snow quality should improve as the storm cycle matures. Some areas could see the next wave begin as early as Sun night (02/15), but confidence drops quickly with lead time and placement.

Many of us are riding the high of the recent major snowstorm wondering when the next big powder day will swing through. Unfortunately for most of North America, it looks like the snowy weather won't be returning anytime soon, or at least not for the next week. Meteorologist Chris Tomer 's Mountain Weather Update paints a rather sad picture for snowfall totals in North America between January 29th and February 5th.

WeatherAs forecasters anxiously watch models for better agreement, one thing is clear: a major winter storm-named Winter Storm Fern by The Weather Channel-is forecast to impact a vast portion of the United States this weekend, bringing a dangerous combination of heavy snow, ice, and extreme cold to much of the country. Winter Storm Fern is expected to impact more than 230 million people across roughly two-thirds of the U.S., stretching across approximately 33 states.