#sahm-rule

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#recession-risk #labor-market #institutional-independence #unemployment #moodys-analytics
US politics
fromFortune
9 hours ago

'I just don't have a good feeling about this': Top economist Claudia Sahm says the economy quietly shifted while policymakers wait for the wrong alarm | Fortune

U.S. data appear moderately stable, but persistent labor-market shifts and weakened institutional independence increase risk of a structurally reshaped, more fragile economy.
US news
fromFortune
1 month ago

Sneaking unemployment rate means the U.S. economy is inching closer to a key recession indicator, says Moody's | Fortune

U.S. unemployment rose to 4.6%, edging toward the Sahm Rule recession trigger and raising recession probability to about 40%.
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