#recession-symbolism

#recession-symbolism

The Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy has turned the yen into the world's cheapest and most reliable funding currency, creating a publicly subsidised funding pipeline for bankers.

'Walmart Worries' just keep multiplying. It's currently close to the highest level ever recorded which was during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09.

"It's a brutal job market. To see that 3.1% hiring rate, the lowest since April 2020, underscores how little hiring is going on."

High energy prices are kryptonite for the housing market. Affordability, especially for those first-time home buyers, is now an elusive dream until oil prices come down and interest rates come down.

"Oil prices are higher again this morning, but Treasury yields are lower as the risks to economic growth begin to take precedence over the risks to inflation," Oxford Economics said in a note on Monday.

The US dollar returned to the upside as geopolitical fears rebounded after US President Trump's address to the nation. The rhetoric fuelled risk aversion and flows toward the dollar while oil prices surged.

The S&P 500 closed up approximately 2.4% near 6,496, while the Nasdaq Composite gained roughly 3.3% to around 21,475, indicating a strong market response to geopolitical news.

Goldman Sachs now expects Brent crude to average $105 per barrel in March and $115 in April before retreating to $80 by year-end, assuming roughly six weeks of Hormuz supply disruptions.

"The historical evidence reveals a striking pattern: government bonds have repeatedly generated substantial real losses during these extreme episodes. They have even underperformed equities and real estates which are traditionally regarded as risky assets."

For the 25 major episodes going back to 1950, we typically see a decline in the S&P of around 4%. Now, usually after a month, the S&P tends to recover that entire decline. Then he immediately walked it back. The playbook, he said, does not apply here.

There is an echoing melancholy to this era, as we watch the end of Silicon Valley's hypergrowth era, the horrifying result of 15+ years of steering the tech industry away from solving actual problems in pursuit of eternal growth. Everything is more expensive, and every tech product has gotten worse, all so that every company can "do AI,"

Although De Noire is based in Europe, she believes that economic upheaval in the United States "triggers huge uncertainty" across the pond because of America's global influence. De Noire first noticed a decline in business right after Donald Trump was elected in November 2024, as Americans and the rest of the world anticipated upheaval. "I didn't even bother working South by Southwest because the first Friday night I attempted to work, I walked into a completely empty club and didn't make any money at all,"

The prosperity of this top cohort is not driven by wage growth. While their wages have risen, they have stagnated relative to the explosive returns on capital. Instead, their consumption is driven by the "Wealth Effect." New analysis shows that 70% of recent economic growth is now driven by just 20% of earners. These consumers aren't spending wages; they are spending paper gains tethered to a market bubble.