#market-crash

#market-crash

The challenges we all face are significant. The list is long but at the top are the terrible ongoing war and violence in Ukraine, the current war in Iran and the broader hostilities in the Middle East, terrorist activity and growing geopolitical tensions, importantly with China.

The conflict has driven up the price of oil and natural gas; damaged oil refineries, tanker terminals and other energy infrastructure; disrupted shipments of fertiliser that the world's farmers depend on; and damaged the confidence of businesses and consumers.

"It has nailed every recession since WWII without falsely predicting a downturn. If it is triggered, it may take a while for the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research to confirm it, but we are already in a recession."

The move reflects a noticeable increase in market caution as investors begin to reprice rising macroeconomic risks. According to data from The Street, around 68% of stocks in the market declined in the latest session, while only about 28% advanced. This suggests that selling pressure was not limited to a few sectors but rather spread across the broader market, reflecting a state of broad risk-off selling.

For the 25 major episodes going back to 1950, we typically see a decline in the S&P of around 4%. Now, usually after a month, the S&P tends to recover that entire decline. Then he immediately walked it back. The playbook, he said, does not apply here.

To start off, we can define a correction as a decline in the S&P 500 index of 10% or more from its most recent high. If the drawdown reaches 20% or more, then it's not just a correction; it's considered a bear market. Using the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust as a proxy, we can see that deep drawdowns have occurred on a regular basis since the early 1990s.

The current pressure is largely driven by tensions in the Middle East, as signals from the U.S. and Iran remain conflicting. While the U.S. has indicated that negotiations are ongoing, Iran has firmly denied any talks, increasing uncertainty around the prospects of de-escalation.