The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft is taking shape after 10 weeks of the 2025 season. Five teams have at least a 5% chance at landing the top pick, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projections. So we called on our NFL reporters and analysts to size up each of those bottom-tier franchises after midseason.
Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video Money Line: Steelers (-260); Bengals (+215) Total: 42.5; Opened: 42.5 FPI favorite: Steelers by 5.7 with a 65.6% probability to win the game outright Los Angeles Rams -3.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Net, NFL+ Money Line: Rams (-165); Jaguars (+140) Total: 45.5; Opened: 45.5 FPI favorite: Rams by 3.3 with a 57.73% probability to win the game outright
Week 4 gets underway with a matchup of NFC West rivals when the Arizona Cardinals host the Seattle Seahawks on "Thursday Night Football." Sunday night features Micah Parsons and the Green Bay Packers hitting the road to take on the Dallas Cowboys. The week wraps up with a "Monday Night Football" doubleheader as the New York Jets visit the Miami Dolphins (7:15 ET on ESPN) and the Denver Broncos host the Cincinnati Bengals (8:15 on ABC).
