The race for No. 1 draft pick: Five teams in the mix, plus their top needs and what's next

"The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft is taking shape after 10 weeks of the 2025 season. Five teams have at least a 5% chance at landing the top pick, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projections. So we called on our NFL reporters and analysts to size up each of those bottom-tier franchises after midseason."

"Seth Walder used FPI to make sense of each of the five teams' schedules the rest of the way. Dan Graziano answered how the No. 1 pick could impact each team's current QB room. Our NFL Nation reporters looked at the biggest positional needs that could be addressed in the first round in April. Matt Miller spun it forward and suggested one prospect each front office could consider if it landed that top selection."

"It will get easier, though I suppose that might not be a good thing for Tennessee now. After having played the hardest schedule in the NFL to this point, the Titans have the 18th-hardest slate remaining, per the FPI. The Titans aren't favored in any games, but there are two contests very close to a coin flip: at the Browns in Week 14 and versus the Saints in Week 17. Other than that, the Titans are at least 6-point underdogs in every game. -- Walder"

"What would landing the No. 1 pick mean for quarterback Cam Ward? Help! Having the No. 1 pick and not needing a quarterback is a fantastic position for a team to be in. The Titans could either use the pick on the best non-quarterback in the draft, which would improve the team around Ward for the future, or they could trade it for a haul of picks to a QB-needy team and use the added draft capital to continu"

Five teams hold at least a 5% chance of landing the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft, with the Tennessee Titans carrying the highest probability at 36.6% and an 87.3% chance to be a top-five pick. FPI projections outline remaining schedules and odds. Remaining analyses cover potential impacts on quarterback rooms, primary positional needs for the first round, prospect fits for each front office, and an excitement rating for receiving the top selection. The Titans have faced the league's toughest early schedule, have the 18th-hardest remaining slate, are not favored in upcoming games, and could use or trade the top pick to build around Cam Ward.

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