The race for No. 1 draft pick: Five teams still in the mix, plus prospects they might consider

"The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft is solidifying after 15 weeks of the 2025 season. Only five teams have at least a 1% chance at landing the top pick, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projections. So we called on our NFL reporters and analysts to size up each of those bottom-tier franchises again after taking a look at midseason."

"Since firing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, the Raiders have scored only 31 points in three games. They totaled 75 yards in a 31-0 loss to the Eagles this past Sunday. Quarterback Geno Smith has regressed over the course of the season, and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has been underwhelming. The offensive line's inability to hold protection or create space hasn't helped either player."

"FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 37.6%FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 92.7% What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games? They aren't favored in any games but don't make the mistake of thinking that the Raiders have the No. 1 pick locked up. Their Week 17 game is against the Giants, who are fourth on this list, and Week 18 is against an already eliminated Chiefs team. Who knows what that game will look like."

After 15 weeks, only five teams hold at least a 1% chance at the 2026 No. 1 pick per FPI. The Raiders lead with a 37.6% chance and a 92.7% chance at a top-five selection. Las Vegas's offense has cratered since firing the offensive coordinator, producing just 31 points over three games and 75 yards in a 31-0 loss to the Eagles. Geno Smith has regressed, rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has been underwhelming, and the offensive line ranks poorly in pass and run block win rates. The Raiders are underdogs in remaining games, including matchups with the Giants and an eliminated Chiefs team, and trade likelihood for the pick is rated extremely low.

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