#election-outcomes

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Latest results in close East Bay elections raise familiar question: Are recounts coming?

Local Bay Area election races are extremely tight, with some candidates expecting to win by narrow margins, while others may trigger recounts.

How a Democrat Turned Back the Trump Tide on Long Island

Nassau County reflects shifting political and economic dynamics, with rising inequality influencing voter behavior and unexpected electoral outcomes.

How to Protect Democracy Now

The alarm over a second Trump presidency contrasts sharply with the public's acceptance of electoral outcomes, creating a dissonance in democratic discourse.
#donald-trump

Jack Smith Plans to Step Down as Special Counsel Before Trump Takes Office

Jack Smith aims to complete investigations against Trump before his inauguration to avoid any interference from the incoming administration.

Betting odds called the 2024 election better than polls did. What does this mean for the future of prediction markets?

Polls underestimated Donald Trump's support in the 2024 election, continuing a recent trend of polling inaccuracies.

Vance, Given 5 Chances to Say Trump Lost in 2020, Takes None

Senator JD Vance avoids stating whether Trump lost 2020 election, focusing instead on future issues.

Jack Smith Plans to Step Down as Special Counsel Before Trump Takes Office

Jack Smith aims to complete investigations against Trump before his inauguration to avoid any interference from the incoming administration.

Betting odds called the 2024 election better than polls did. What does this mean for the future of prediction markets?

Polls underestimated Donald Trump's support in the 2024 election, continuing a recent trend of polling inaccuracies.

Vance, Given 5 Chances to Say Trump Lost in 2020, Takes None

Senator JD Vance avoids stating whether Trump lost 2020 election, focusing instead on future issues.
moredonald-trump
#prediction-markets

Biden Likely to Win Popular Vote, but Not Presidency, Prediction Market Signals

Prediction markets show indications on popular vote outcomes.
Regulatory settlements impact prediction market access for U.S. users.

Political Betting Markets See Vindication in Trump Victory

Prediction markets like Polymarket outperformed traditional polls in forecasting Trump's election victory, marking a pivotal moment for the betting culture in politics.

Biden Likely to Win Popular Vote, but Not Presidency, Prediction Market Signals

Prediction markets show indications on popular vote outcomes.
Regulatory settlements impact prediction market access for U.S. users.

Political Betting Markets See Vindication in Trump Victory

Prediction markets like Polymarket outperformed traditional polls in forecasting Trump's election victory, marking a pivotal moment for the betting culture in politics.
moreprediction-markets

Op-ed | How election outreach toAAPIvoters became mainstream in New York | amNewYork

AAPI voter engagement is crucial for Democrats, influencing election outcomes through targeted communication and investment.

Don't trust the polls? Neither did The New York Times in 1956 (spoiler: it didn't work out great)

The New York Times conducted extensive reporting in 1956 to gauge public opinion but failed to accurately predict Eisenhower's reelection victory.
#political-influence

Harvard study: Taylor Swift - and other celebs - could really influence the 2024 election

Celebrities can significantly boost voter participation while enhancing their own public image, according to a Harvard study.

Google is biased in favor of Democrats ahead of 2024 election

Google has been shown to significantly influence election outcomes through biased search results favoring Democrats over Republicans.

Harvard study: Taylor Swift - and other celebs - could really influence the 2024 election

Celebrities can significantly boost voter participation while enhancing their own public image, according to a Harvard study.

Google is biased in favor of Democrats ahead of 2024 election

Google has been shown to significantly influence election outcomes through biased search results favoring Democrats over Republicans.
morepolitical-influence
#french-politics

In France, it's now only a matter of time before the far right takes power | Paul Taylor

France's far-right National Rally (RN) is likely to gain power in upcoming elections, indicating a shift in the country's political landscape.

The Guardian view on France's snap election: the unthinkable becomes plausible | Editorial

Emmanuel Macron's strategic error in underestimated support for Marine Le Pen's National Rally party backfired, leading to potential significant political shifts in France.

The Guardian view on France's political crisis: Barnier is not a real fix for Macron's mess | Editorial

Michel Barnier, despite being appointed prime minister, faces public skepticism regarding his ability to govern effectively.

OPINION: A European disaster for Macron could lead to messy autumn elections in France

The paradox of Macronism is evident as his young revolutionary image attracted older voters, but they are now deserting him, impacting his support and potentially future election outcomes.

In France, it's now only a matter of time before the far right takes power | Paul Taylor

France's far-right National Rally (RN) is likely to gain power in upcoming elections, indicating a shift in the country's political landscape.

The Guardian view on France's snap election: the unthinkable becomes plausible | Editorial

Emmanuel Macron's strategic error in underestimated support for Marine Le Pen's National Rally party backfired, leading to potential significant political shifts in France.

The Guardian view on France's political crisis: Barnier is not a real fix for Macron's mess | Editorial

Michel Barnier, despite being appointed prime minister, faces public skepticism regarding his ability to govern effectively.

OPINION: A European disaster for Macron could lead to messy autumn elections in France

The paradox of Macronism is evident as his young revolutionary image attracted older voters, but they are now deserting him, impacting his support and potentially future election outcomes.
morefrench-politics

How Wisconsin Democrats Easily Defeated 2 Conservative Constitutional Amendments

Wisconsin Democrats defeated critical constitutional amendments despite initial doubts, emphasizing the importance of maintaining checks and balances in government.

Polish activists say new abortion guidelines not good enough DW 08/17/2024

Polish women's protests against restrictive abortion laws have gained significant momentum and influenced electoral outcomes, highlighting safety concerns and the need for legislative change.

Some Republicans express buyer's remorse over Vance VP pick

Vance faced challenges as the GOP VP nominee after Biden-Harris switch disrupted electoral predictions.
#political-campaigns

What Women Voters Really Want

The article discusses the evolution of women's voting preferences, exemplified by the contrasting outcomes of Donald Trump's 2016 election and the more recent 2020 election.

Labour might be a racing certainty, but it faces some big hurdles in government

It's important to consider all factors, even beyond poll numbers, when predicting election outcomes.

What Women Voters Really Want

The article discusses the evolution of women's voting preferences, exemplified by the contrasting outcomes of Donald Trump's 2016 election and the more recent 2020 election.

Labour might be a racing certainty, but it faces some big hurdles in government

It's important to consider all factors, even beyond poll numbers, when predicting election outcomes.
morepolitical-campaigns

How Far Will Republicans Go to Become Trump's Vice President?

Republicans vying for a VP slot express loyalty to Trump, potentially impacting former President's choice for running mate.

Little-Known Democrat Beats Biden in American Samoa

Jason Palmer, a technology entrepreneur, won four of the six Democratic delegates in American Samoa, surprising President Biden.
In previous elections, American Samoa's caucus results have been unexpected, with Michael Bloomberg winning in 2020 and uncommitted delegates favored in 2016.

America's Most Powerful Pollster Has Some Doubts

Nate Cohn's polls drive political narratives but are not infallible due to potential underestimations, such as Trump's strength in past swing states.

What the science of elections can reveal in this super-election year

The 2025 democratic processes could significantly impact science funding and international collaborations.

Only four in 10 undecided voters think most likely election outcome is Lab majority - London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com

Undecided voters skeptical about Labour majority government outcome.
Research contradicts notion of election already decided for undecided voters.
#presidential-debates

Biden-Trump debate next week: Here are highlights from six decades of presidential debates

Presidential debates have had significant impacts on election outcomes in the past.

Political Betting Markets Sure Do Like the Sound of President Gavin Newsom

Online political betting markets react in real-time during events like debates, providing insights into political outcomes and public sentiment.

Biden-Trump debate next week: Here are highlights from six decades of presidential debates

Presidential debates have had significant impacts on election outcomes in the past.

Political Betting Markets Sure Do Like the Sound of President Gavin Newsom

Online political betting markets react in real-time during events like debates, providing insights into political outcomes and public sentiment.
morepresidential-debates

Post-debate bumps are real, but no guarantee

A good or bad first debate can impact national polls by up to a few percentage points, but does not determine the election outcome.

6 takeaways from the big progressive losses in New York primaries

Pragmatism beat purity in recent NY elections.

Why Robert F. Kennedy's Jr.'s current presidential polling numbers might not hold up into November

Third-party candidate polling momentum can be misleading, not reliable for election outcomes.

Why Plutocrats Are Rallying to Trump

Trump's felony conviction among independent voters contrasts sharply with increased support from ultra-wealthy Republican donors.
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