#buffett-indicator

#buffett-indicator

The JPMorgan CEO called the three-year bull market run unmistakable, while warning that asset prices currently sit high and credit spreads are unusually tight, a rough combination that signals overconfidence. Like others issuing warnings, Mr. Dimon puts a big 6-month to 2-year window for a market correction, which he thinks could be as big as 30%, citing profligate government spending, geopolitical issues, and rising global militarization.

Markets often rally in anticipation of rate cuts but then decline when the actual rate cuts are implemented. J.P. Morgan's trading desk recently warned that despite stocks setting "more than 20 all-time highs this year," the Federal Reserve's next rate cut "threatens to curb investors' zeal" through a potential "sell the news" drop. The S&P 500 is up almost 33% from its lows in April and is up nearly 13% for 2025.