Desjardins Securities predicts that the Bank of Canada will need to cut its policy rate faster and deeper than financial markets expect due to a drag on spending from pending mortgage renewals.
Desjardins economist Royce Mendes forecasts that the BOC will cut interest rates by 1.5 percentage points in 2024 to 3.5%, and to 2.25% in 2025.
Canada will struggle to achieve above-trend growth until 2027 due to the impact of mortgage renewals on household consumption.