The National Association of Home Builders projects a modest growth rate for single-family home construction in 2023, forecasted at just 0.2%. This slight increase may not sufficiently address the estimated 3.7 million housing unit deficiency in the United States. Homebuilders express optimism about regulatory cuts and tax extensions from President Trump; however, uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly a new 10% tariff on Chinese goods, casts a shadow over construction costs. Heightened concerns surrounding labor shortages due to immigration policies further complicate the homebuilding landscape.
The uncertain policy environment in terms of a better regulatory climate and impending tariffs offers both upside and downside risks in the near term, says NAHB Chair Carl Harris.
Home builders and remodelers are dealing with positive and negative risks in the months ahead, states NAHB Chief Economist Rob Dietz.
Trump has argued that his plans for mass deportations will lower housing costs by reducing demand for homes, which could drain the labor pool for construction.
Homebuilders are encouraged by Trump's push to cut regulations and extend tax cuts, but they fear new tariffs could raise the cost of building new homes.
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