"Sorting out the role of chance in success is both interesting and important. One reason it is important to sort out chance is to provide a rational basis for praise or blame (and any accompanying reward or punishment)."
"If I win a lottery by pure chance, I have done nothing warranting praise. Likewise, if I do not win a random lottery, I do not merit being accused of failure."
"Much less obvious is the connection between chance and setting rational public policy and laws. Setting public policy on such matters as unemployment benefits and food stamps without properly assessing the role of chance in success and failure would be a grave moral error."
Understanding the role of chance in success is essential for rationally assigning praise or blame. Success by chance, such as winning a lottery, does not warrant praise, while failure by chance does not merit blame. This concept extends to moral responsibility, where unforeseen circumstances can absolve individuals from guilt. Additionally, public policy must consider chance's influence on unemployment and welfare, as misjudging personal responsibility could lead to unjust policies that overlook the complexities of individual circumstances.
Read at A Philosopher's Blog
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